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3rd Quarter 2007 estimates.

nextel18

Oct 9, 2007, 5:33 PM
What are your estimates for the 3rd quarter 2007 for AT&T?

Mine: Net subscriber gain of 1 million subscribers for a total ending in subscribers of 64.673 million. Total churn 1.5%. Voice ARPU of $51.
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ygbhen

Oct 9, 2007, 5:50 PM
1.2 million net adds
1.5% churn
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nextel18

Oct 9, 2007, 5:51 PM
ARPU?
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bigmike99s

Oct 9, 2007, 6:23 PM
Addition
Revenue
Per
Unit

i.e. features
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nextel18

Oct 9, 2007, 6:28 PM
What? I know what ARPU is. ARPU is actually average revenue per user. I asked him what his opinion was as in the $ amount.
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AshDizzle

Oct 12, 2007, 10:19 PM
It's average revenue per unit. Per user is not accurate as more than one user uses a line of service or a user has more than one line of service.
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nextel18

Oct 13, 2007, 2:59 PM
It can be either or but even Phone Scoop’s glossary says average revenue per unit. Other sources confirm that.
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nextel18

Oct 13, 2007, 3:00 PM
It can be either or but even Phone Scoop’s glossary says average revenue per user. Other sources confirm that.

Finally, I will say it is Average Revenue Per User. That is final.
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texaswireless

Oct 9, 2007, 6:44 PM
Ummm, not quite correct. Nextel18 is correct.
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chainsaw

Oct 9, 2007, 7:02 PM
I bet ARPU went down with the option of family text packages. We saw a lot of people spending $60 a month on text that went down to $30. Is the typical $50-$53 ARPU that is commonly reported include features? Or is it just voice?
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nextel18

Oct 9, 2007, 7:13 PM
Well ARPU tends to drift a lot but it looks like AT&T is coming out with more expensive plans that people are signing up. The Iphone has to do with that trend. Text messages are with data APRU not voice ARPU.
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Jayshmay

Oct 12, 2007, 1:13 PM
Wouldn't average revenue per user include the average total bill? Whether it's voice, or data, wouldn't the average be the total bill?
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nextel18

Oct 12, 2007, 2:13 PM
Well there are two metrics for ARPU. Data and voice and they are both separate.
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Jayshmay

Oct 12, 2007, 8:26 PM
they may be considered seperate, but the bill isn't, that's for sure. my txt msgs, and minutes are all on the same bill.
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nextel18

Oct 13, 2007, 3:06 PM
it doesn’t matter if they are together on your bill because as of the metrics concern they are separate.
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Jayshmay

Oct 13, 2007, 3:47 PM
Oh.

By the way, Nextel18, this very possibly might be my next phone, I was checking out Engadget, and there is an inventory sheet of upcoming phones coming out on AT&T, and one of them is the Sony Ericsson K850, very, very nice handset, it seems attractive. especially the 5mp camera!!!! It also records video at 30fps, has stereo bt, 2.2 inch screen, and touch sensitive controls, I'll have fun with this thing.

Here's the link to the phone, I'm pretty much decided!!!:
http://www.mobileburn.com/review.jsp?Id=3449 »
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nextel18

Oct 13, 2007, 4:31 PM
Yea, I have heard about that device.
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Anxiovert

Oct 9, 2007, 8:30 PM
Are you kidding? 1M adds? Oh, I got it. You're just talking about iPhones, right?
I'd say 1.7M net adds. 1.2- 1.1 churn. $56 ARPU
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nextel18

Oct 9, 2007, 8:36 PM
No I think those estimates are low but given the weakness in the wireless area, there could be some issues, but I do think they will beat that. Churn I don’t think will be that low and ARPU won’t be that high.
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Anxiovert

Oct 9, 2007, 8:49 PM
I guess we'll both have to wait to see whose predictions are more accurate. Lol
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nextel18

Oct 9, 2007, 8:51 PM
Yea. I like it when people are actually engaged in dialogue in conversations.
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bradleyt78

Oct 11, 2007, 7:40 PM
Well, does anyone know what AT&T/Cingular's best quarter was? 3Q07 is going to be the best quarter ever. Mark my words.
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nextel18

Oct 11, 2007, 7:41 PM
I do not remember. So give your estimates.
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big j

Oct 12, 2007, 4:04 PM
Not good at estimating...

But what are the odds of ATT beating VZW this quarter?
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nextel18

Oct 12, 2007, 4:16 PM
We’ll try to estimate if you are wrong no one will laugh at you and if you are right then hey more power to you. I think this quarter is a bit difficult to see but I think probably a 40% chance that Cingular beats out Verizon in net adds, especially given the nature of Sprint’s issues and majority of those customers who leave go to Verizon.
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