Q3 estimate for Cingular.
I expect Cingular to add slightly more than 1.1MM net subscribers in Q3. This is lower than the Q2 net adds of 1.5MM, primarily because I think that churn may go up to 1.9% from 1.7% sequentially due to the managed migration of TDMA customers to GSM (existing TDMA customers will have to pay an extra $5/moif they do not switch to GSM). While the GSM network integration is behind it, Cingular is still working on the GSM billing system conversion and the legacy GSM prepaid sunset (both scheduled to finish by YE) as well as the TDMA billing conversion and Legacy TDMA prepaid sunset, which are scheduled to be done by mid-2007. As a result, I anticipate that churn may increase slightly near term but it should trend lower as we close 2007, helping...
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Disagree with you on ARPU, I think it will actually increase to right around $49.00. From everything I've seen (I work in the NE region), the vast majority of TDMA users are actually on cheaper plans. Its the main reason they've kept TDMA so long, b/c they are on old family plans where the secondary mobiles were free, or old 9.99 home/emergency use plans we don't offer with GSM. Also, Cingular did a targeted sweep and actually forced any GSM users who were on grandfathered plans 19.99 and under to upgrade to our 29.99 plan. That will also push up ARPU slightly. Thats just my humble opinion though, and you may prove me wrong, we'll just have to see 😉
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I agree with you...
While some tdma subscribers may choose to just cancel, the one's that stay will be bumped up in plan.
While some tdma subscribers may choose to just cancel, the one's that stay will be bumped up in plan.
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I disagree on churn. It will either remain around the same or lower, but definitely will not be higher.
TDMA forced migrations will be offset by lower GSM churn keeping the overall numbers around the same as last quarter.
TDMA forced migrations will be offset by lower GSM churn keeping the overall numbers around the same as last quarter.
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I don't know if tdma customers will influence anything. Every single customer that I had in my store that got a "legacy" letter from cingular was on a prepaid service that no one could honor. Most of these customers chose to go to an exisiting offer with cingular. But at the same time I can not predict if the ones who got the letters went with other carriers. The point is that no other company could offer the same plan that legacy at&t offered and our current plans offered plans just as competitive as any carrier on the market besided some select prepaid services.
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Plus free phones for converting!!!! Who else offers their customers free go phones?
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And no upg fee either... that alone is a great reason for staying as they would have to pay activation with another carrier.
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i dis agree on both churn and arpu (yea im joining the numbers talk 🤤 )
as an employee they have "PUSHED" us to sell higher data and talk plans and we have. atleast in the market and surrounding markets im in.
as far as the old tdma customers. most of them stay because every other carriers talk plans right about now are the same. with exception to sprint and t-mobile. but they have their back cost that jumps it right back up. ie. sprints roaming is an additional $5. 🙄
mu guess on adds are 1.1 - 1.3
as an employee they have "PUSHED" us to sell higher data and talk plans and we have. atleast in the market and surrounding markets im in.
as far as the old tdma customers. most of them stay because every other carriers talk plans right about now are the same. with exception to sprint and t-mobile. but they have their back cost that jumps it right back up. ie. sprints roaming is an additional $5. 🙄
mu guess on adds are 1.1 - 1.3
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When are the results coming out?
I expect churn to be lower than Q2 (1.4-1.5). ARPU will go UP slightly considering the amount of plp that have gone from TDMA to GSM and the deployment of 3G.
This is a turning point though. Integration being complete; leaves Cingular to focus only on axpansion of the network. HSDPA is only weeks from being deployed (this will help us catch up with the red check mark in the area) which is much needed. 😛
I expect churn to be lower than Q2 (1.4-1.5). ARPU will go UP slightly considering the amount of plp that have gone from TDMA to GSM and the deployment of 3G.
This is a turning point though. Integration being complete; leaves Cingular to focus only on axpansion of the network. HSDPA is only weeks from being deployed (this will help us catch up with the red check mark in the area) which is much needed. 😛
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Churn...
I doubt this would be heavily affected because every tdma cust is being offered a free phone (rare now days) and the upgrade fee is being waived. If they go to another carrier, they'll pay an activation fee, plus have to buy a phone. (except in rare cases)
Adds...
I think gross adds will hold steady or get better with last years numbers for this quarter. The fewest dropped calls is starting to sink in with customers, and we're picking up alot of nextel's customers.
ARPU...
It will increase. TDMA cust are being "forced" onto a higher rate plan 80% of the time because their plan is below the lowest plan offered on GSM.
We're also pushing Data plans more. "Hot" PDA's hit the market in the 3rd quarter including the 8125 ...
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I doubt this would be heavily affected because every tdma cust is being offered a free phone (rare now days) and the upgrade fee is being waived. If they go to another carrier, they'll pay an activation fee, plus have to buy a phone. (except in rare cases)
Adds...
I think gross adds will hold steady or get better with last years numbers for this quarter. The fewest dropped calls is starting to sink in with customers, and we're picking up alot of nextel's customers.
ARPU...
It will increase. TDMA cust are being "forced" onto a higher rate plan 80% of the time because their plan is below the lowest plan offered on GSM.
We're also pushing Data plans more. "Hot" PDA's hit the market in the 3rd quarter including the 8125 ...
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Ehh I wouldn't want to say exact numbers, but from the meeting we had, I want to say everyone will be pleasantly surprised.
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Well, if you noticed I did not mention the exact numbers too and just and estimate so just tell.
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this is where he gets his info from I posted this ? in the vzw forum with no response the #s he gave were a direct quote from whachovia equity research. and I mean word for word....so either he stole it from them...or the stole from him either way I don't think these are his opinions but are taken from someone else
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vzw-csr21 said:
this is where he gets his info from I posted this ? in the vzw forum with no response the #s he gave were a direct quote from whachovia equity research. and I mean word for word....so either he stole it from them...or the stole from him either way I don't think these are his opinions but are taken from someone else
🤣 awesome job!
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As I said to the other person, I contribute to this research and allowed to give it to outside sources.
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I actually contribute to Wachovia’s equity research and the department and they authorized me.
Sorry.
Sorry.
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I'm not going to say what the numbers are. You'll have to wait until the 19th for that. I'm not willing to jeopardize my job to let a few folks know the results a week early.
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Well, I could give exact numbers too; however, I do not and just state “my opinion”. There is a difference between your opinion and what the exact numbers are.
So state. (If you are afraid to lose your job perhaps, say a range. Is that fair?)
If you cannot give any numbers then you should not have even replied.
So state. (If you are afraid to lose your job perhaps, say a range. Is that fair?)
If you cannot give any numbers then you should not have even replied.
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if he has the exact #s then why would he give an opinion?? an opinion is what you think not necessarily what is true.
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Well, why not? I always give my opinions even though I have a lot more information than the average Joe on here with sources and contributions but I still state opinions especially since the language is as such. If one does not feel like stating their opinions then they should not even be replying to the conversation. If I wanted to, I could give the exact numbers, but obviously that is against many SEC rules so I will not be doing so, but instead giving an opinion or range is OK to do.
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No it's not ok. Knowing what the results (or even a rough figure) would alter any opinion one would have on a subject. If my original opinion was low, and I found the results would be high, I would change my opinion, and vice versa.
Giving an opinion or range when you know the results would be in essence insider info because your not going to mislead the public by saying a far off figure, your going to say something much closer to the actual results.
Giving an opinion or range when you know the results would be in essence insider info because your not going to mislead the public by saying a far off figure, your going to say something much closer to the actual results.
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exactly my point, i have the release date of the vx8600 im not going to sure this exact date and jepordize my job and theres point in giving a date range of when it will be released.
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Well that is different because that is providing proprietary information which quite frankly is across among many of these type forums so I am not sure many people are afraid.
Nonetheless, you could state a quarter when it is arriving. (As long as it is in writing in public domain, you are allowed too; such as in research reports from the carrier, the phone manufacturer and analysts reports.)
Nonetheless, you could state a quarter when it is arriving. (As long as it is in writing in public domain, you are allowed too; such as in research reports from the carrier, the phone manufacturer and analysts reports.)
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But opinions are allowed.
Also, you can state when a product will come to the market place but not its detail. Example; you can say it is coming out in quarter 4 or what not.
Also, you can state when a product will come to the market place but not its detail. Example; you can say it is coming out in quarter 4 or what not.
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Of course, it is ok to do so.
Many people state their opinion and ranges on here and no one has a problem with it, I do not understand why cant you? It is not proprietary or inside information. Just state a number; it is not that hard.
For example; say like 900k-2 million… who cares; I just wanted to know what everyone thinks.
Many people state their opinion and ranges on here and no one has a problem with it, I do not understand why cant you? It is not proprietary or inside information. Just state a number; it is not that hard.
For example; say like 900k-2 million… who cares; I just wanted to know what everyone thinks.
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I replied because of what I said.
I "think" everyone will be pleasantly surprised. That's my opinion on this subject.
I'm here to talk about wireless companies, and occasionally help a customer or two if they need help, not tell someone company numbers before the company is ready to divulge them themselves.
I "think" everyone will be pleasantly surprised. That's my opinion on this subject.
I'm here to talk about wireless companies, and occasionally help a customer or two if they need help, not tell someone company numbers before the company is ready to divulge them themselves.
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I see, so I guess we will leave it at that; no point of getting into an argument over it.
Then it would be just best if you didn’t even reply to my thread then. (In the first place)
😁
Then it would be just best if you didn’t even reply to my thread then. (In the first place)
😁
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lol so i'm banned from your threads?? I thought we were cooler than that 😕
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YES!!! No soup for you!!!
Ha-ha, I am kidding.
I just think if someone has any input in which to give they should but if they don’t they shouldn’t.
Ha-ha, I am kidding.
I just think if someone has any input in which to give they should but if they don’t they shouldn’t.
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colione112 said:
The only down side I can see for the 3rd quarter is "profit". Free phones and no upg for TDMA customers will hit the bottom line, and we can't forget about the push to get UMTS rolled out into more markets.
but they thought about this before hand. that's why all accessory prices at corp stores were raised...
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True, but they also launched more "bundles" for accessories, and allowed for "virtual" discounts on multiple accessorie, which lowers the profit per accessory back to the original level. That's something that wasn't done a year ago. Accessories sales in my store have actually increased because of this.
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There haven't been any free phones in my market, not even with those flyers for TDMA customers. Every one of those has had to have it mailed to them, so in the store front Net profits should be up.
Feature sales are up. Data sales are up. and Revenue per Unit is up.
Feature sales are up. Data sales are up. and Revenue per Unit is up.
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Yea, that's why I don't think the numbers will be affected either way because the bad is offsetting the good.
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