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4th Quarter Predictions

colione112

Oct 21, 2006, 3:57 AM
I know this is early, but I want to see everyone's opinion and thoughts...

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and officially declare my predictions for 4Q before we even get into the quarter..

I'm going to say we'll finish the 4th quarter with approx 62 million... what's that about 3 million new cust?

How u say?
1. More phones are coming with PTT, and music functionality.
2. A bigger push for customers before the name change. (not expected until Q1 '07 at the earliest)
3. Newer, better, faster data devices (treos, bb, nokia's, htc's)
4. Better public perception. (least dropped cals, network, cust serv)
5. More appealing phones. (style, quality, and userability)

Sure we have to get through the whole tdma ppd shutdown,...
(continues)
...
the_eraser

Oct 21, 2006, 6:56 AM
Actually, I have to disagree with you â˜šī¸ I think those TDMA customers are going to affect us again this quarter (churn) since the TDMA sunset campaigns didn't officially start until the last days of September. We are going to get a lot of gross adds (as usual, more than any other carrier 😈 No one is better than us; and customers know it) But those TDMA customers with $10.99 calling plans are cancelling left and right. I know cuz I transfer them to CR's (at least 10 a day) So are huge gross adds are going to be affected by it. I expect to end Q4 with 60.2M customers.

Why do you think that this is going to affect us on Q1 '07 and not Q4 '06?
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colione112

Oct 21, 2006, 11:21 AM
Yea, but you have to remember we have a 29.99 plan avalable to them that no one else is going to offer them... (save team in all markets should have access to them at least)
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ralph_on_me

Oct 21, 2006, 11:50 AM
Why do you cancel them when you can set them up on Prepaid and actually save them money?

$10.99 over 12 months is $131.88. They can get on the GSM flat rate for $100 a year. If they're on a plan lower that $20 a month that's all they'll ever need.

Every customer who's come into my store with a plan like that has left with a Motorola c139 (11 hour battery life) and $100 of prepaid minutes.
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sangyup81

Oct 21, 2006, 11:53 AM
it's still churn when you do that although I see why it's a better deal for the customers

what did the $10.99 plan give anyways?
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ralph_on_me

Oct 21, 2006, 12:00 PM
It's an account type change, but since they're still with the company doesn't that cancel out the churn ratio?

We didn't have a $10.99 in my area, but we do have people on $19.99 and $14.99 ones. The $15 one was a "senior citizen" plan, which basically charged them the $15 no matter what and if they used the phone there was a per minute charge. The $20 was about 50 minutes a month and called the "security plan" or something like that.
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Iselltheshitoutofphones

Oct 21, 2006, 1:31 PM
Caleb,

Don't forget about the free roadside assistance included in the plan! The one feature old people need we could not sell them. Those plans were way before my time with Cingular.

Speaking of weird plans, when I was in Lubbock, the had a county wide plan which gave you like 75 minutes for $20. Roaming out the ass outside Lubb county.

Will
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sangyup81

Oct 21, 2006, 3:46 PM
No, the account type change is treated as a disconnect and a pre-paid addition according to the CSP notes I read when that account change was first possible in POSII. So you increase gross additions and churn by 1 and don't increase net adds.
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